Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis in Estimating the Number of Earned Exposure Units

Tri Handhika Avatar
Kaplan-Meier-Survival-Analysis-in-Estimating-the-Number-of-Earned-Exposure-Units

Abstract – The estimated number of earned exposure units can help corporate executives of auto insurance company in calculating their own individual claim reserves. We conduct the estimation of this number of earned exposure units by using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to generate the survival table. The generated survival table were then divided to be 9 risk groups based on the issuance of Financial Services Authority of Indonesia No. 6/SEOJK.05/2017 and the duration of auto insurance coverage in Indonesia. We used Root Mean Squared of Error (RMSE) as one of error measurement of the survival model. Meanwhile, a series of one-sample test with log-rank weighted function were performed for each risk group to demonstrate the goodness of fit. The estimation generated by using the survival table produce more conservative results compared to the reality. This gives assurance for one of the auto insurance company in Indonesia to use the expected earned exposure units as a basis to calculate the amount of unit that have risk to suffer a partial loss claim but still support the company in optimizing their resources.